Verbosities

This Narrow Area

I’m totally pre-occupied with all things ME these past few days, and I’m even pissing myself off with all the internal whining I’m doing. So I asked Gracie for a fake book title (see above), which I’m going to write at least 500 words on. Because I suck and can only think about getting cut open and having an IV bag and sixteen days of fatigue and boredom and… See, no more whining little bitch today. That’s why I’m taking the title above and goofing around…

“Mr. Halstead can just fuck right off then.” To that point Deborah’s words had been measured and careful, but my methodical approach to staying on my talking points couldn’t be sidetracked. Instead, she chose to take the low road and throw spite at her perceived aggriever before turning on her heel and storming out of my office. Deborah’s gait carried her with a forced dignity, heads turning from every cubicle with assumptions in low frequencies and hushed tones buzzing her ears. I thought it was all very funny.

She stopped dead in the middle of the cubicle maze when she spotted two security guards stepping from the elevator. One spoke into his shoulder-mounted radio and Deborah turned her head to confirm her suspicion. I had the phone to my ear and smiled and waved to Deborah. Yes, that’s me telling these guys to get you out of here. Yes, yes… I’m a bastard, I know. One of the officers circled around back of her, taking a tactical route around a stack of cubes to cut off any access back to her desk – my idea, I admit. I giggled just a little when she looked back to me again with that “You’re not even going to let me get my wedding picture?” look in her eyes. She was resigned, totally broken for a moment. She pricked her ears sharply just then, with an instant recognition of what must now be done. Softly, but audibly to her rapt former office mates she declared, “There isn’t an ounce of truth to this. Whatever Mr. Halstead says is a pack of lies.” One of the guards tugged at her elbow. She found a little more resolve, and a lot more volume. “Lies!”

It was 9AM.

I let forty minutes pass, hoping to ease the nervous tension of the early morning drama into a dulled sense of dread among the staff. They had no idea what was going on around them, or what exactly – if anything – was coming next. Perfect. I pressed the intercom button on my desk and reached my secretary. “Eustice, can you send Miss Appleton in for just a moment please?” I wore the stone mask of unvarnished indifference, but inside I was running an adrenaline-laced spat of giddiness. I spied Dianne Appleton through my glass office walls tenatively approaching Eustice’s desk and was already on the phone arranging to have security clean up another mess. “Yes, thirty-second floor east… She’ll be the caucasian forty-something with the red sweater and khaki slacks, dark hair – probably a dye job. Do not allow her to return to collect personal items, we will have those delivered via courier. Ten minutes, thanks.”

It took twelve. I must say Dianne turned in a masterful performance: tears flying, plausible sobbing, apologetics in abundance (which was, naturally, the most curious part of it all), and even a knee-buckling prostration as soon as she spotted the two guards waiting patiently outside my door. I dismissed her cooly, never once letting my abundant glee shine through. Dianne was too distraught to offer anything to the visibly frightened business-casual crew on her way to the elevator, and you could hear her unabashed sorrow down the shaft to at least twenty-nine.

I couldn’t wait for the next one, so I bid Eustice to come in and shut the door behind her. She gingerly stepped across the threshold and peered into the far corners of my office, as puzzled and shocked as the rest of those fuckers out there. “Eustice, I need about fifteen minutes for security to get Dianne to the front door. At ten after I’d like for you to have Jerry Romans come and see me, but I’d also like for you to call Ben Geathers up from thirty-one. Have him wait on the couch.” I gestured outside to the couch with full view of my desk, the chairs in front, and what promised to be an animated meeting with Jerry.

He didn’t disappoint. Jerry was our point guy in Sales, and for once in his life he didn’t have control of the room. I remained stolid, explained the circumstances and brought Jerry to a mad bubbling froth that couldn’t be contained. “Old man Halstead said what?” Jerry was bent over my desk, both palms providing balance as his furor threatened to sway him to toppling. “I’m just the messenger,” I started. “He asked me to express to you his severe disappointment, and to let you know that Geathers there-” I stopped to gesture through the window to the obviously agitated and panicking shell of a man on the couch, “-will be taking your place leading the sales team. If there’s anything I can do,” Anything, meaning ‘fuck you Jerry’ “please feel free to ask Eustice. I’m sorry to be the one to let you go. Now, if you’ll just follow these two men…”

Goddammit, this was fun. Geathers saw Jerry being lead away by armed guards with a slack jaw and frantic eyes, and tenatively cowered just a little as I came over to the couch and picked him up with a handshake. The rest of the staff never knew what hit ‘em when I threw my arm around Ben and took him into my office to give him the title of Sales Director. It was a proud moment for Ben. As soon as he managed to collect himself and ask why Mr. Halstead would ask the Assistant Director of Finance to lead the sales force, I simply replied, “Trust. It’s all about trust Ben. And that’s what Mr. Halstead has in you. Trust. He’s been watching you since you started here Ben, and wishes he were here instead of Pebble Beach to have this conversation with you directly. But,” and I gestured globally, “you understand what’s going on today.” I said that last part as if he were a person in the know. He slowly nodded and stood to shake my hand. “You’ll start Monday Ben. Why don’t you take a four day weekend on us?” Ben Geathers was wearing a three-hundred watt smile all the way to the elevator.

“Eustice, can you come in here please?” Next was Sarah O’Guinn, then Rodney Watts, then Ed Sharpley. They were angry as hell, argumentative, and litigously threatening respectively. The thrill was growing exponentially too. I couldn’t possibly be enjoying myself any more than this.

It was two thirty, and I was running out of time. I had wanted to save Paul Post for last. I wanted to savor the feeling of nailing this asswipe, but it was late, getting later, and I didn’t have time to dick around. “Eustice, Paul Post as soon as he can spare a minute, please.” I placed the usual call to security and took three deep breaths to try and quell the spasmodic merriment flowing through my veins. I shut the blinds to the office to give Paul and I some privacy.

“Paul, can you shut the door behind you and have a seat?” Paul approached with trepidation, and didn’t break eye contact as he sat down. “Now, I suppose you already know why you’re here?”

Paul started, meekly. “I don’t have the slightest idea why I’m here.” I let that sit in the air, alone and between us for a few more seconds than was obviously comfortable for him. “And I don’t know why any of the others were in here today either.” His speech was clipped, he was already broken. All my groundwork today, no matter how much I enjoyed it, was well worth it.

“It’s about the numbers Paul.” His head tilted to the side and he blinked just once. It was confusion. “Mr. Halstead has asked me to ask you for an explanation. Everything will be much easier on you if you own up to the truth.”

“Truth? The numbers? What are you talking about? I don’t even touch the numbers, whatever they are! You know that… Hell, Halstead knows that! I’m in Sales for chrissakes!” Obviously incredulous, definitely defensive… I was enjoying this, but stuck to the script.

“Paul, there was an… aberration five quarters ago. Another the quarter thereafter. Mr. Halstead asked me to install a system of checks that allowed me to track these inaccuracies, and we know Paul.” My intercom buzzed. I ignored it. “We know everything Paul.” The intercom buzzed again, somehow more insistent than the first time. I lifted the receiver a centimeter and dropped it back again.

“I don’t know what you think you know, but…” The buzz was replaced by three large raps at the door.

“NOT NOW EUSTICE!” It was the first time the fury had caught me all day long. My face grew red and my fingers tightened around the arms of my chair. I kicked at the side of my desk from underneath in frustration, trying to stifle the building rage. The knocks came again, with two voices – male, unrecognizable – asking me to open up. “NOT FUCKING NOW EUSTICE!” I kicked the chair out from under me and circled the desk to confront Paul, who was rising to meet me.

“You’re fucking finished here Paul,” I hissed. “Done. Fired. I want you fucking gone.”

Paul read the situation perfectly, replying simply, “Why don’t we see who’s at the door Leonard?” He walked over and twisted the knob to find a shaken Eustice and two large uniformed police officers. “Are these gentlemen here for me Leonard?” Paul was taunting me… He was always fucking taunting me.

“Leonard Coffey?” Paul pointed, so very helpful. “You’re under arrest.”

Eustice, protective to the end, asked, “What’s the charge officers?”

“Embezzlement. At least $250K over the last sixteen months.” I spat at the smaller officer’s shoe.

As they were pulling me from the office Paul asked, “Does this mean I still have my job Leonard”

YouBet

Anyone wanting to sign up to YouBet for horse wagering should use my handle, “boygza,” as the referral code (how’d you find us…). Then, you’ve gotta stay a member for 60 days and play through $100 for me dammit, then I get paid.

Not that it matters. Got an email today from YouBet congratulating me on my dollar volume of wagering lately. They’ve credited me with one year of free service.

I’m a high roller.

Big Day

Started off with a miss, but hit a winner and the exacta in the second for net $39.40. From there, it all fell into place… I had $10 to win and $20 to place on the winner in the third (watch those place pools, I got a very agreeable price on that play) for $81 net, hit the winner in the sixth (but missed the tri by a NOSE) for net $14.40, the exacta in the eighth for $25.30 and then a $2 flier in the tenth turned into $121.60.

Net take for the Tampa card today = +$161.20. Very good day.

Tampa Picks For Sunday, January 29th

I took a look back at the last two days of racing at Tampa (sample size, I know), and noticed that pace setters have only won three of twelve dirt sprints, with either a presser (nipping at the heels of a pace setter) or close stalker coming up with the other nine victories. If a horse isn’t capable of getting within three lengths of the leader by the first quarter, he’s not scoring a win. The pace setter who doesn’t win these sprints (all three on Friday – one MCL with slow fractions, one 5K claimer and an 8.5K claimer who lugged his ass in for an unspectacular win after a pretty solid first four furlongs) isn’t placing either.

For this reason, I’m discounting all pace setters today, and doing my best to find some good horses who can stay up close and take advantage of these vulnerable front-runners.

Looking at dirt routes, it’s more of the same. Pace fell off the map in a few, but hit the board in a couple of the classier races. By the way, if you’ve got Virtual Stable email notification at Equibase, there’s a horse by the name of SOLDIER’S WORD you need to add to your stable. He ran a 1 and 1/16 MSW race on Friday and won by 11 lengths. Not only that, but he hung a time of 1:44.9 on the teletimer. Fast track you say? Well, two previous races at that distance on the card were run at 1:49.3 and 1:49.8. Worth watching to see where his trainer takes him from here.

On to the picks…

1) 6F $10K Clm N3L – Look at #4 Flight To Eden. Recent speed figs are tops here and have improved over the last three. Par here should be around 61, and there isn’t much else in this race close to that number. Three back’s sixth place finish was an aberration, as nine of the 12 entries in the field went on to hit the board (4/4/4 WPS) in their next out, plus the winner hung a huge 70 Beyer, which is about four to five points above par for that class (at least). Like him to strike in first, 4/1 on the morning line. You can look at #6 Rare Fool too, but I think he’s going to struggle coming from as far off the pace as he seems to want to. His speed figures are there, and he ran a nice one in this class/dist last time out, but I don’t see the pace shaping up for a deep closer (for a sprint) to work his magic. Probably a touch of an underlay at 7/2, I’d play at 5/1. PICK! I like #4 above even money.

2) 7F $5K Clm N2Y – Kind of a tough race on paper, there’s a lot to like here. The pace might not be hot, but it’ll be just north of lukewarm. Some combo of #2 Bus Man Jack, #8 Dragon The Pot and #5 Short Hair should move out front and start the action, and I like all three for different reasons. #2 seems to be improving, and I’ll like him here if he can stay in second a good half length or so off the pace through the first three quarters. If that happens, and the fractions are agreeable, I could see him grabbing a piece at a nice price. #8 spiked a big Beyer over his few previous last out, so he’s a candidate to bounce in this spot. He’ll want to move the action early though, and any repeat of last race (to be fair, he did look primed for a nice uptick, just not 15 points and a lifetime best) will be plenty here. #5 is interesting, as he laid off for just about a year and came back with a vengence. He fired a bullet workout on 1/9 and then came out on 1/19 (ten days later) to totally control the pace and dominate at a slightly lower level than this. It’s ten days later, and he’s entered here. I like the symmetry (bullet – ten days – hot race – ten days…), and I want to trust the trainer knows what he’s doing. I’d really like to see this horse around 9/2 (his morning line) as the minutes to post dwindle. He could improve sharply here. #4 Bruney might be too much of a closer here, but he’s ten for his last sixteen in the money (4/4/2) and can’t be ignored. I’d like to see the crowd throw their support here and give me better prices elsewhere. I do also like #3 So Far So Go. He’s improved three straight Beyers since laying an egg in December, and a 71 Beyer seems within reach again for this horse, which will be very competitive in this class. I like that he’s a close stalker, and he’s got a real shot here. I’d like him more at 5/1 than his 4/1 morning line though. PICK! #5 above 4/1, #3 above 4/1

3) 7F MCL $12500 – If you want to throw your support behind 3/1 morning line favorite #10 Westcoasteastcoast, be my guest. I’m not getting anywhere near him though. He’s had three straight improving Beyers, but he’s getting an eight day turnaround and a class jump after being claimed? He’s the horse I’m praying is overbet here, and if he wins, more power to you. Good luck to a jockey with 2% winners and a trainer under the Mendoza line himself. I don’t know what to think about #8 Greatest Creation. I like improving Beyers, and I like when a horse finds his early speed. He hasn’t shown the ability to hold up over the course of the race, however, and despite a pretty solid looking (five furlong?) workout eleven days ago, I’ll leave this 4/1 shot out. Give me a shot at #5 Lucky Straight. He’s 5/1 on the morning line, gets a class drop and found his early speed last time out. He’s got an enormous lifetime Beyer advantage and solid workouts this month. #3 Barkeeper is worth watching too. After a number of blase workouts, he hangs a huge one five days ago. He’s never raced before, and I guarantee #10 is going to get a lot of action at the windows. Could be a very fair price on a 9/2 morning line horse. PICK! #5 above 5/2, #3 above 3/1.

4) 1 and 1/16 Clm 5K N2Y – I’m going to toss the likely favorite, #8 Keystone Point. He’s running first off a claim with a shittier trainer/jockey combo, and I’m betting on regression. I do like #7 Siberiano with his quick turnaround and class drop. He ran last out with a horse at an unrestricted $6250 tag that had bested a few of these in early January. I think he and #9 Joust will get up front and one of the two will score the win, especially if Joust regains his form from two and three back, which isn’t out of the question. PICK! #7 above 8/5, #9 above 2/1.

5) 1 and 1/16 Turf MSW $18K – Lots to like about #7 Selway. He was working successfully back at Gulfstream under Barclay Tagg a year ago, then came off a long layoff with two very consistent performances at Calder and most recently at Tampa. He lost by a neck to an 18-1 shot who grabbed the lead at the three quarter pole and never let go. He’ll be wildly overbet, but I like him at any price over even money. Then again, you might find value with #5 Classic Fran. He comes out of much classier company in the New York circuit, and ran a nice warmup performance in his first race off layoff on January 6th. He’s 6-1 on the morning line, I fully expect he’ll improve and contend. Interesting longshot, if you want to take a flier, might be #3 Stellar Soldier. Like his last two, although they were in June and August and only at a mile on the grass. I think he could be worth a few bucks at 10/1. PICK! #7 at even money, #5 above 9/2, #3 above 9/1.

6) 7F $7500 Clm N2L – God, I hate all of these horses. Do you want to bet on the pace setting horses at a short price? Then jump all over the inconsistent #3 Worthy Performance, who’s been toiling at this level since September (always a bridesmaid – or worse), or the nine-tries-to-break-my-maiden mediocrity of the projected even-money oddsline of #7 Smart Connection. #7 gets Umana, so I can’t toss him out, but I really want to look elsewhere. I’m tossing the morning line favorite, #8 Slew On Slew, to the wolves here too. Screw playing a horse that needs to find July’s form (and hasn’t, over five races since September) to contend. How about #5, the imaginatively named Lordlebo N Marylou. He could improve (the pattern is there), and I like that he’ll stalk these. I think his problems with late-race stamina might have been corrected when the trainer dumped him in a route last out. I think that’s what he was doing there, now he’s dialing the horse back down to a sprint and will find the winner’s circle at 10/1, and I’ll buy a pizza for dinner. PICK! #5 above 5/2, #7 above 5/2

7) 1 and 1/16 Turf Alw $19,200 for 3YO horses – Early speed is 1-5 across grass routes over the last two days, which leaves me wondering how #3 Sweet Grass Creek is going to do. He’s by far the classiest horse in the field (bred for $125K, sold in 2004 for $195K) and should take to the grass well. However, he pressed the pace in his last (on the dirt) here in December, and I don’t know if that running style will be beneficial here. He has been working out solidly since that race, so I have to believe the trainer has him in the right spot to score. #9 Obispo Street will also be a favorite here, and showed a real nice return to the grass at this class twelve days ago. I like his chances here a lot, but he spiked an improvement last time and he’ll have to go even higher today unless #3 collapses. Obispo gets Lezcano, who’s won 20% on the turf this year. #5 Red Dirt Road might creep up to take a share, but I don’t have a ton of confidence to play him. PICK! #3 above 8/5.

8) 7F MSW 18K – #8 Major Tom is a Nick Zito shipper from Calder, who already took two tries at Belmont and Churchill to break in much better class. He didn’t score, but absolutely should here. Play at even money, though I doubt you’ll get that. Interesting first time starter #6 Confederate. Kentucky-bred, workout warrior, hung a :38.1 in a 3F workout six days ago. Maybe he grabs the lead and won’t let go? PICK!#8 at even money, #6 above 9/2.

9) 1 and 1/16 $19200 Alw – I’m reaching a bit for #7 Rain Spinner. I like Lezcano aboard, I like the improving figures, and I like he had a solid effort (losing to a hot front runner) in this class/dist last out. Very capable of scoring at a nice price. I like two of the favorites here too, with #3 Excellent Job looking very solid. 5/2 for an improving horse seems fair. #1 Gumba comes out of the Illinois circuit, and I like this as a class drop scenario for him. I think this is his distance, even though it seems like his trainers keep tossing him in sprints. Nice workout last week over 4F (:49 flat), and I like him to improve as well. PICK! #7 above 5/2, #3 above 2/1, #1 above 2/1.

10) 1 and 1/16 Turf MSW $18K – Here’s an interesting angle… How about #4 Sirdar with a morning line of 8/1? I like that he’s a classy horse ($150K to breed, sold in 2002 for $290K), I think he likely battled injuries as a 2YO and 3YO, and didn’t make it to the track until he was 4. Three races under his belt, and they don’t look spectacular. However, the speed ratings weren’t bad, and the track variants for all three of his races were right around 30. That’s like running through quicksand. Tampa’s turf course has been faster, maybe he scores today? PICK! Play him at 5/1 or better, if you can get it.

11) 7F Clm $7500 N2L – I bet I don’t even play this one, I’ll likely need a break by now. I don’t know if #8 Miesque’s Boy deserves to be this heavy (7/5) of a favorite, so I’ll look elsewhere. How about #7 Spirit of Life? Nice workout last out, looks to be on the rebound back to his old abilities. Why not? These horses all suck anyway. PICK! #7 above 4/1.

Sweep and a Mop

Feels like spring cleaning around here today… I’ve added a bunch of way overdue links to the blogroll to your right, please click them all before you leave. I’ve also taken yesterday’s enormous but horribly fun live-blogging post and moved it into my archives. I thought it turned out pretty well, but winning $80 (hit the exacta in the Sunshine Millions Classic to buffer the bad bets I made in opposition to the overbet Silver Tree in Jerry Bailey’s last ride) kept my attitude high all day.

Anyway, I’ve also published a feedburner RSS feed here, and would like to remind you that you can plug this link into Bloglines or any other aggregator too: http://www.gamblingblues.com/homes/sitefeed.

Big Day

Started off with a miss, but hit a winner and the exacta in the second for net $39.40. From there, it all fell into place… I had $10 to win and $20 to place on the winner in the third (watch those place pools, I got a very agreeable price on that play) for $81 net, hit the winner in the sixth (but missed the tri by a NOSE) for net $14.40, the exacta in the eighth for $25.30 and then a $2 flier in the tenth turned into $121.60.

Net take for the Tampa card today = +$161.20. Very good day.

Tampa Picks For Sunday, January 29th

I took a look back at the last two days of racing at Tampa (sample size, I know), and noticed that pace setters have only won three of twelve dirt sprints, with either a presser (nipping at the heels of a pace setter) or close stalker coming up with the other nine victories. If a horse isn’t capable of getting within three lengths of the leader by the first quarter, he’s not scoring a win. The pace setter who doesn’t win these sprints (all three on Friday – one MCL with slow fractions, one 5K claimer and an 8.5K claimer who lugged his ass in for an unspectacular win after a pretty solid first four furlongs) isn’t placing either.

For this reason, I’m discounting all pace setters today, and doing my best to find some good horses who can stay up close and take advantage of these vulnerable front-runners.

Looking at dirt routes, it’s more of the same. Pace fell off the map in a few, but hit the board in a couple of the classier races. By the way, if you’ve got Virtual Stable email notification at Equibase, there’s a horse by the name of SOLDIER’S WORD you need to add to your stable. He ran a 1 and 1/16 MSW race on Friday and won by 11 lengths. Not only that, but he hung a time of 1:44.9 on the teletimer. Fast track you say? Well, two previous races at that distance on the card were run at 1:49.3 and 1:49.8. Worth watching to see where his trainer takes him from here.

On to the picks…

1) 6F $10K Clm N3L – Look at #4 Flight To Eden. Recent speed figs are tops here and have improved over the last three. Par here should be around 61, and there isn’t much else in this race close to that number. Three back’s sixth place finish was an aberration, as nine of the 12 entries in the field went on to hit the board (4/4/4 WPS) in their next out, plus the winner hung a huge 70 Beyer, which is about four to five points above par for that class (at least). Like him to strike in first, 4/1 on the morning line. You can look at #6 Rare Fool too, but I think he’s going to struggle coming from as far off the pace as he seems to want to. His speed figures are there, and he ran a nice one in this class/dist last time out, but I don’t see the pace shaping up for a deep closer (for a sprint) to work his magic. Probably a touch of an underlay at 7/2, I’d play at 5/1. PICK! I like #4 above even money.

2) 7F $5K Clm N2Y – Kind of a tough race on paper, there’s a lot to like here. The pace might not be hot, but it’ll be just north of lukewarm. Some combo of #2 Bus Man Jack, #8 Dragon The Pot and #5 Short Hair should move out front and start the action, and I like all three for different reasons. #2 seems to be improving, and I’ll like him here if he can stay in second a good half length or so off the pace through the first three quarters. If that happens, and the fractions are agreeable, I could see him grabbing a piece at a nice price. #8 spiked a big Beyer over his few previous last out, so he’s a candidate to bounce in this spot. He’ll want to move the action early though, and any repeat of last race (to be fair, he did look primed for a nice uptick, just not 15 points and a lifetime best) will be plenty here. #5 is interesting, as he laid off for just about a year and came back with a vengence. He fired a bullet workout on 1/9 and then came out on 1/19 (ten days later) to totally control the pace and dominate at a slightly lower level than this. It’s ten days later, and he’s entered here. I like the symmetry (bullet – ten days – hot race – ten days…), and I want to trust the trainer knows what he’s doing. I’d really like to see this horse around 9/2 (his morning line) as the minutes to post dwindle. He could improve sharply here. #4 Bruney might be too much of a closer here, but he’s ten for his last sixteen in the money (4/4/2) and can’t be ignored. I’d like to see the crowd throw their support here and give me better prices elsewhere. I do also like #3 So Far So Go. He’s improved three straight Beyers since laying an egg in December, and a 71 Beyer seems within reach again for this horse, which will be very competitive in this class. I like that he’s a close stalker, and he’s got a real shot here. I’d like him more at 5/1 than his 4/1 morning line though. PICK! #5 above 4/1, #3 above 4/1

3) 7F MCL $12500 – If you want to throw your support behind 3/1 morning line favorite #10 Westcoasteastcoast, be my guest. I’m not getting anywhere near him though. He’s had three straight improving Beyers, but he’s getting an eight day turnaround and a class jump after being claimed? He’s the horse I’m praying is overbet here, and if he wins, more power to you. Good luck to a jockey with 2% winners and a trainer under the Mendoza line himself. I don’t know what to think about #8 Greatest Creation. I like improving Beyers, and I like when a horse finds his early speed. He hasn’t shown the ability to hold up over the course of the race, however, and despite a pretty solid looking (five furlong?) workout eleven days ago, I’ll leave this 4/1 shot out. Give me a shot at #5 Lucky Straight. He’s 5/1 on the morning line, gets a class drop and found his early speed last time out. He’s got an enormous lifetime Beyer advantage and solid workouts this month. #3 Barkeeper is worth watching too. After a number of blase workouts, he hangs a huge one five days ago. He’s never raced before, and I guarantee #10 is going to get a lot of action at the windows. Could be a very fair price on a 9/2 morning line horse. PICK! #5 above 5/2, #3 above 3/1.

4) 1 and 1/16 Clm 5K N2Y – I’m going to toss the likely favorite, #8 Keystone Point. He’s running first off a claim with a shittier trainer/jockey combo, and I’m betting on regression. I do like #7 Siberiano with his quick turnaround and class drop. He ran last out with a horse at an unrestricted $6250 tag that had bested a few of these in early January. I think he and #9 Joust will get up front and one of the two will score the win, especially if Joust regains his form from two and three back, which isn’t out of the question. PICK! #7 above 8/5, #9 above 2/1.

5) 1 and 1/16 Turf MSW $18K – Lots to like about #7 Selway. He was working successfully back at Gulfstream under Barclay Tagg a year ago, then came off a long layoff with two very consistent performances at Calder and most recently at Tampa. He lost by a neck to an 18-1 shot who grabbed the lead at the three quarter pole and never let go. He’ll be wildly overbet, but I like him at any price over even money. Then again, you might find value with #5 Classic Fran. He comes out of much classier company in the New York circuit, and ran a nice warmup performance in his first race off layoff on January 6th. He’s 6-1 on the morning line, I fully expect he’ll improve and contend. Interesting longshot, if you want to take a flier, might be #3 Stellar Soldier. Like his last two, although they were in June and August and only at a mile on the grass. I think he could be worth a few bucks at 10/1. PICK! #7 at even money, #5 above 9/2, #3 above 9/1.

6) 7F $7500 Clm N2L – God, I hate all of these horses. Do you want to bet on the pace setting horses at a short price? Then jump all over the inconsistent #3 Worthy Performance, who’s been toiling at this level since September (always a bridesmaid – or worse), or the nine-tries-to-break-my-maiden mediocrity of the projected even-money oddsline of #7 Smart Connection. #7 gets Umana, so I can’t toss him out, but I really want to look elsewhere. I’m tossing the morning line favorite, #8 Slew On Slew, to the wolves here too. Screw playing a horse that needs to find July’s form (and hasn’t, over five races since September) to contend. How about #5, the imaginatively named Lordlebo N Marylou. He could improve (the pattern is there), and I like that he’ll stalk these. I think his problems with late-race stamina might have been corrected when the trainer dumped him in a route last out. I think that’s what he was doing there, now he’s dialing the horse back down to a sprint and will find the winner’s circle at 10/1, and I’ll buy a pizza for dinner. PICK! #5 above 5/2, #7 above 5/2

7) 1 and 1/16 Turf Alw $19,200 for 3YO horses – Early speed is 1-5 across grass routes over the last two days, which leaves me wondering how #3 Sweet Grass Creek is going to do. He’s by far the classiest horse in the field (bred for $125K, sold in 2004 for $195K) and should take to the grass well. However, he pressed the pace in his last (on the dirt) here in December, and I don’t know if that running style will be beneficial here. He has been working out solidly since that race, so I have to believe the trainer has him in the right spot to score. #9 Obispo Street will also be a favorite here, and showed a real nice return to the grass at this class twelve days ago. I like his chances here a lot, but he spiked an improvement last time and he’ll have to go even higher today unless #3 collapses. Obispo gets Lezcano, who’s won 20% on the turf this year. #5 Red Dirt Road might creep up to take a share, but I don’t have a ton of confidence to play him. PICK! #3 above 8/5.

8) 7F MSW 18K – #8 Major Tom is a Nick Zito shipper from Calder, who already took two tries at Belmont and Churchill to break in much better class. He didn’t score, but absolutely should here. Play at even money, though I doubt you’ll get that. Interesting first time starter #6 Confederate. Kentucky-bred, workout warrior, hung a :38.1 in a 3F workout six days ago. Maybe he grabs the lead and won’t let go? PICK!#8 at even money, #6 above 9/2.

9) 1 and 1/16 $19200 Alw – I’m reaching a bit for #7 Rain Spinner. I like Lezcano aboard, I like the improving figures, and I like he had a solid effort (losing to a hot front runner) in this class/dist last out. Very capable of scoring at a nice price. I like two of the favorites here too, with #3 Excellent Job looking very solid. 5/2 for an improving horse seems fair. #1 Gumba comes out of the Illinois circuit, and I like this as a class drop scenario for him. I think this is his distance, even though it seems like his trainers keep tossing him in sprints. Nice workout last week over 4F (:49 flat), and I like him to improve as well. PICK! #7 above 5/2, #3 above 2/1, #1 above 2/1.

10) 1 and 1/16 Turf MSW $18K – Here’s an interesting angle… How about #4 Sirdar with a morning line of 8/1? I like that he’s a classy horse ($150K to breed, sold in 2002 for $290K), I think he likely battled injuries as a 2YO and 3YO, and didn’t make it to the track until he was 4. Three races under his belt, and they don’t look spectacular. However, the speed ratings weren’t bad, and the track variants for all three of his races were right around 30. That’s like running through quicksand. Tampa’s turf course has been faster, maybe he scores today? PICK! Play him at 5/1 or better, if you can get it.

11) 7F Clm $7500 N2L – I bet I don’t even play this one, I’ll likely need a break by now. I don’t know if #8 Miesque’s Boy deserves to be this heavy (7/5) of a favorite, so I’ll look elsewhere. How about #7 Spirit of Life? Nice workout last out, looks to be on the rebound back to his old abilities. Why not? These horses all suck anyway. PICK! #7 above 4/1.

Live-Blogging Bonanza

In honor of Dr. Pauly Appreciation Weekend, you’ll (probably, barring consistent losses of large sums of money or something better coming up) be treated today to a live-blogging extravangza from my gambling-filled Saturday. Gotta start somewhere, right? Well, I bought a scratch-off ticket at the grocery store this morning, and that’s as good an entry point as any, right?

10:33AM – I tried to blindly pick a “lucky” coin to scratch this ticket out of my change jar, but instead got one of those new state quarters dedicated to West Virginia (“Now Nine Days Since Our Last Mining Tragedy!”). This can’t be good.

10:34AM – First scratch, and I’m going for the slots. I like to play these slow… Spin 1′s prize is $1,000. I shouldn’t even scratch the “reels.”

10:35AM – Apple… Apple! Melon.

10:36AM – Okay, saving the two reels for later, hopefully resetting my karma. Moving to the dice (moneybags). I’m going right to roll 3 in order to throw the ticket a curve.

10:37AM – I just scratched the prize, and it’s a $50 payout if I “roll” a seven or eleven. That’s realistic, right?

10:38AM – Five… and five. So close.

10:38AM – Roll 2′s prize is $100, maybe we’ll hit this one.

10:39AM – Three… and I need a four. Come on four… Six. Crap. Hope Joe was pressing on me making the point at nine.

10:39AM – Eff this dice shit, I’m playing blackjack. I just have to beat the dealer. Do I scratch my hands first or his? How about his?

10:41AM – Hell motherfucking yeah, dealer draws a Jack and a Five. Lots of dimes left in the deck, let’s see what I can pull.

10:41AM – Hand 2′s prize is $30, Hand 3′s is $5 (what I paid for the ticket, there’s my sixteen I bet) and Hand 1′s is a cool grand. I can’t watch.

10:42AM – Hand 1? A deuce and a dime. Twelve. Fuck. I’m not a thousandaire.

10:43AM – Hand 2? Five… and seven. Shit, even on a lotto ticket I get the Asian dealer.

10:44AM – I’ve gotta save Hand 3 as my last-ditch effort to make my money back, so it’s back to the slots. Spin 3′s prize? $10. Key… strawberry in the second slot. Way to preserve the mystery Michigan lotto. (Bar in slot three, if you were curious)

10:45AM – One more throw of the dice with a prize of $200K behind the scratchy-offy stuff. I may as well just set this ticket on fire right fucking now. First die? Deuce. Great, need a five. One in six chance to hit $200K on a $5 ticket? I like those odds.

10:47AM – Random dogs I have taken a piss next to in the last 24 hours: A Welsh Corgi named Frye.

10:48AM – Yes, I’m stalling. I need a five. Come on five.

10:48AM – Fuck. Sooooo rigged.

10:49AM – One last “spin” of the slots for me, and I’ll save the mystery of the prize amount in case I hit. Star… star… I’m trying not to get excited here… motherfucking horseshoe. I hate this game. A measly $50 down the drain.

10:50AM – Last chance in blackjack to make my money back. Dealer’s got fifteen, I’ve got a $5 payout if I make it past her.

10:51AM – Ace… that’s promising. Any five or higher pays $5, and any ten pays double. I could double up!

10:51AM – Two. You’ve got to be fucking kidding me.

10:52AM – Last chance… There are two boxes down below, and if the numbers behind the scratchy-offy stuff match, I go to Vegas for free. This, clearly, is too much to ask.

10:52AM – Caesar’s number: 20. Now I’m annoyed. If it were, say, on a scale of 1-10, then I’d have a much better chance. Now? I can’t even predict if I have a 1-20 chance on a match or not. What if the scale goes to 99? I’m so fucked.

10:54AM – I clearly need to stop getting my hopes up.

Live-Blogging Tampa Bay Downs and the Sunshine Millions

(From 1/28/2006, archived back to save space…)

*4:24PM Update: Stupid-ass technical difficulties have forced me to abandon my Quixotic quest to run all eight races at Tampa and all eight for the Sunshine Millions. That was fun, and I’ll do it again someday, but I need to reboot and not stress the shit out of my system anymore today…

Huge day of late-January racing today, with the California/Florida rivalries on display at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita for the Sunshine Millions stakes program. I’m here in my living room having nearly thrown up a too-oily fried taquito just now, but with seven minutes to post at Tampa Bay Downs, I’ve got to get the party started.

Today’s handicapping strategy is “Blink.” I’m not spending a ton of time on the programs, so I’m also not spending a lot of money chasing horses around the bend either. I’ll note my picks and CompuTrak picks as the day shapes up.

On to the live blogging…

12:20PM – Six MTP at Tampa, I was looking at morning line 20/1 shot Lucky Dove, as he gets TD Houghton and has two huge workouts and early speed to his credit. He’s at 8/1, so I’m not as giddy to play him. By the way, the #2 horse is a son of a dam named “Jeannie the Meanie.” I didn’t know my ex-wife gave birth to a racehorse…

12:27PM – Apparently a concession-stand employee named Betty Squiers died. The track announcer just eulogized her, ending with “And the horses are nearing the post!” Just the way Betty would have wanted it. $7 to win on Lucky Dove. 10/1 as they’re loading up. CompuTrak didn’t make him a pick, but had his odds around 2/1. Good enough for me, let’s roll.

12:30PM – Race 1 – Six furlong Maiden Claimer – They’re almost loaded up… And the horse whose mother may have been my ex-wife just broke through the starting gate and is now fighting not to be loaded back in. Ah, memories of my contentious marriage.

12:32PM – And they’re off… My horse broke sideways, and isn’t looking great early. By the first quarter though, he’s grabbing the lead as expected, with The Siphon King now putting a little length ahead. My horse doesn’t seem to want to keep up and is getting passed. He has the rail on the final turn and is getting urged…. but it wasn’t meant to be. He could finish dead last here. Too bad I don’t get paid on a (very terribly far back) last place finish. Oh, and the winner? Jeannie the Meanie’s son at 2/1. Fucker.

12:35PM – I know we’re still in the tilt-a-riffic wake of race one, and y’all probably need a moment to contain yourselves, but I’m ready to soldier on. I really really really like #2 Wild Amber in the second at Tampa. Morning line of 7/2, this looks to be an awfully contested pace, and I think it’ll be a race where a very capable closer could strike. I can’t discount #4 Shine Please either, as she’s coming off a second-place finish at the same distance in a slightly better class. The trainer got frisky with this horse off her maiden win, and spent way too long tracking her down to the right class level. This is probably that spot. She’s got a morning line of 3/1, and I’m hesitant to play her anywhere under 2/1. I’m also hesitant to endorse an exacta or trifecta, as there’s too many horses I don’t like who’ll want a piece of the lead. If one or more hangs up near the top longer than expected, it’ll be a tough ticket to have predicted. CompuTrak, by the way, likes #10 Marchella (morning line 8/1). 22 minutes to post.

12:42PM: I mentioned the Sunshine Millions is today. The Sunshine Millions is a Florida- vs. California-bred series of stakes races ran in, well, Florida and California. They’ll be on NBC with the first race starting around 3:20PM EST.

On the card at Gulfstream:
· Race 6 – The Padua Stables Sprint (with Mister Fotis, Bordonaro and Smokume)
· Race 7 – The Ocala Stud Oaks (with Knights Templar)
· Race 8 – Ocala Breeders’ Sales Distaff (with House of Fortune and Dream of Summer)
· Race 9 – The Cloverleaf Farms Turf (with Silver Tree, Captain Squire and Willow o Wisp)

On the card at Santa Anita:
· Race 3 – The Dash (with Plagiarist)
· Race 4 – The Filly and Mare Sprint (with Western Hemisphere)
· Race 5 – The Warren’s Thoroughbred Filly and Mare Turf (with Moscow Burning and Valentine Dancer)
· Race 6 – The Classic (with Lava Man, Supervisor, Buzzards Bay and Who’s Crying Now)

Naturally, there’ll be a Pick Six and maybe even a Pick Eight going on, but I’m not that flush with cash to play ‘em. I’m not even going to crack the program until I’m done looking at Tampa’s anyway.

Nine MTP for race two.

12:59PM: Two minutes to post, I’m putting win bets on both #2 Wild Amber and #4 Shine Please. I don’t feel good about boxing them up, so I’m going to put Wild Amber in second with a variety of horses above him on an exacta. I went 1/4/8/10 with 2 locked in second…

1:02PM – They’re loading up for race 2, seven furlongs for $7500 claimers who have never won twice. Not exactly Kentucky Derby winners.

1:03PM – And they’re off. No panicking when #2 looks lost early… #10 gets out early, and my deuce isn’t that far off, but is predictably last. 10 and 8 one and two early, which is good for my exacta. Let’s get it going Wild Amber. On the far turn, the 10 is up by four and looks tough. Where’s the two? Get up there! On the turn #10 gets caught, but the 8 is there. #2 doesn’t look close. It’s 10/8 and here comes two! She flew up on the outside, moving awfully fast in the final sixteenth, but I don’t think she caught the eight. That’s bad for my 7/2 win ticket, but should pay $25 on the exacta…

1:07PM: It’s official. Eight then two, with a $25.20 payout on the exacta. With my $7 loss on the first race and $8 worth of bets on this race, I’m up $10 for the day through two. Goddamn I love feeling smart for knowing this race shaped up well for the #2, and for guessing (pure guess, that’s all) that he wouldn’t quite get there if another presser found a good trip.

Yes, I’m pussyfooting around my bankroll today. I’ll start throwing it around like a Vanderbilt later on.

1:12PM – I’d like to welcome all the non-simulcast outlets following Tampa Bay Downs with me today, and would like to please remind you to tip your servers.

Anyway, race four is a maiden claimer over six furlongs, and this is my GENIUS LOCK OF THE DAY. #10 Yea Verily is likely to have the pace to himself, and should improve his speed figs from his last effort out. He ran from an outside post last out, and it didn’t seem to hurt his ability to show early speed too, which I like to see. This horse absolutely moves forward today, but I can’t play him under 6/5 odds. CompuTrak likes the 7 horse. I think my software is on crack.

Fifteen minutes to race three.

1:27PM: Three MTP, and Yea Verily (#10) is at even money. Yuck. Still, it’s a strong predictor when you’re looking at such a perceived early speed advantage in a Maiden race over six furlongs. I’ve got to play him. I’m dropping $20 on the win.

(I type this and he drops to 4/5)

1:30PM: The nightmare scenario is basically Yea Verily refusing to go to the lead. I just can’t see that happening, and if he gets there by the quarter pole – even if contested – he should win this easily. Easily.

Late scratch, not my horse though. He’s 3/5 now, and that scratch could push him lower. Ugh.

1:32PM: They’re loading ‘em up… and they’re off!

Watching #10 closely out of the gate – he gets out real clean and goes up quick. Liking this so far, although he’s four wide on the first turn. He can overcome this. Three back in third but hanging. He’s still wide, and I don’t like that. He passes and goes to second, and is running with the six horse strong on the final turn. He’s gotten passed. He’s got a bit left… get there… get there… whew. Won by 3/4 of a length, had something in the tank, thank fucking god. Of course, helps to have a rider named Jesus (Castanon) in the saddle. Excellent ride by Daniel Centeno on the #12, it was a valiant place effort against a real strong horse. Yea Verily got claimed, unsurprisingly. I’d have paid $25K for that horse.

1:37PM: $20 on the win bet paid $34. I’ll take it. Glad I didn’t get cute on an exacta, it paid $9 on a $1 bet. I’d have spent $8 chasing a $1 profit…

1:40PM: That last race was sponsored by the St. James Ladies Auxilary of the Knights of Columbus. I’m pretty sure I misspelled “Auxilary.” I love that we have honest-to-god knights, but I enjoy that they have to have a special additional group just for the ladies. Do they spend their time reparing the chain mail and picking the skull fragments out of their gentleman’s mace?

1:43PM: Real tough one coming up. It’s a $16K claimer over 1 and 1/16 on the turf. I like #1 Joey Blueeyes a bit. He showed to a horse last out who went on to win at this class and distance the next race. I don’t like the first-with-jockey angle, but 10/1 would be playable for sure. #2 Tis Magical is overrated, probably needs one to get his form back. #3 Cullen has a good angle with second off layoff (32% winners for the trainer on that angle). Still, I would only play at 20/1 or so (might see that). #4 Marquette has a graded stakes pedigree, but that was six years ago. Hasn’t hung better than an 81 Beyer in two years. Pass. I do like #10 Heza Wild Guy, has three straight improving figs and placed last out in same class/distance/surface, and he gets TD Houghton. I hate outside posts coming out of the chute, but this horse is worth 3/1 for sure.

CompuTrak thinks #6 Last Stand should be played at 5/2 or better. Morning line of 5/1, sitting at 9/1 with Castanon on the mount. Might be worth a look.

By the way, Jose Lezcano is riding at Gulfstream today, which makes Michigan’s own TD Houghton the big dog jockey on the program. Nice!

Ten minutes to post.

1:57PM: Two MTP, and Heza Wild Guy (#10) is at 4/1, while Joey Blueeyes is way underlaid at 5/2. Not even getting value on #3 either. $5 to win on #10 is the play.

2:00PM: Just so you know, today’s fourth race has been named in honor of the Fountainview Estates. Presumably, they actually do have a fountain onsite, as opposed to the too-hopefully named McMansion subdivisions like “Falcon Ridge,” which feature neither ridges nor falcons.

They’re about to load up, and I’m looking for #10 to break sharply and get up near the lead and rail before that hard left turn out of the chute hits. If he hangs wide, I might be in trouble. There are a lot of contenders here, and I’m now getting 7/2. Ugh.

And they’re off… Ten gets out good, and is getting up there… He’s only three wide, two back off the lead. I’m okay with that, Houghton got him out sharply. Racing third, four back. Good spot. Hate early leaders in turf races. It’s #6, CompuTrak’s pick, with a six length lead. Jesus is up there for sure, and Ten is two wide in fourth. That’s okay, save your run. On the turn ten makes a move, has some run… get up there. Nope, nothing left. Isn’t making it. Tis Magical the #2 got there over #6 and #1. I didn’t like #2 that much, especially not off a long layoff at 2/1. Wouldn’t have played him there for sure.

Whatever, I’m still up $19 through four races…

2:13PM: CompuTrak likes #6 Andiamo, and so do I. Trainer is 43% returning a winner after running first last out, and he’s had two solid workouts since. I’d play him at just north of even money. #4 Brian’s Echo is interesting. He’s got six lifetime wins, four of which were in 2005. I like that the trainer seems to have found places for this horse to succeed, and three of his last four Beyers were at 88. Consistency, my friends. #1 Forest Picnic can strike off the pace, and might be a value play around 5/1 or 6/1, but he’d need to find July’s form. Not out of the question though.

The “name” play here is absolutely #10 DR. THUNDER, which would, coincedentally, be my porno name if I ever got a nine inch PVC pipe implanted in my wang. 8/1 on the morning line, so there’s your longshot guess pick of the afternoon.

2:20PM: I really should be handicapping the eighth race right now (stay ahead of the program, helps you make better decisions), but this conversation came up in the comments, I’ll repost it here:

I enjoy reading your blog I have an interesting horse at Tampa for the 6th race.

# 1 Blades Hill is a presser in a field filled with speed. # 8 Kaufy Machine, a speedy Kirk Ziadie hrose will be over bet. #s 7,8,4, & 10 should duel for the lead and set hot fractions. # 1 dropping from a stakes race should get a fine rail tracking trip. He has 3 wins from 7 races at Tampa and he should be a decent price. I am going to bet him across the board.
Laoch | Homepage | 01.28.06 – 2:12 pm | #

Laoch – I ran through that race about half an hour ago, I’ll type what I wrote about #1 here verbatim:

“Avoid like plague – 21 point Beyer spike last out? Hasn’t ever done that before? BOUNCE.”

Of course, what the hell do I know? But he hasn’t hit 85 on a fig in ages, and he spikes a 91? That’s a hell of a jump, and I have a hard time not seeing him as a prime candidate to bounce.
BG | Homepage | 01.28.06 – 2:16 pm | #

A reliable bounce pattern, according to Betting Thoroughbreds by Steve Davidowitz, is the belief that if a horse runs an uncharacteristically high Beyer figure, they’ll rarely repeat the number. It’s an inexact guess to be sure, but I buy into it. Blades Hill hung a huge number last out, a number that was well outside what his form would indicate. I have a real hard time supporting a bet on a horse with a severe spike like that. I believe he’ll regress. It’s just two steps forward, one step back. Just my own personal approach, that’s all…

2:36PM: 2/1 on the morning line, 2/1 now… $20 to win on #6 Andiamo.

2:38PM: They’re heading towards the gate, it’s 1 and 1/16 over the dirt for this $25K claimer, and I’ve got my money on #6 Andiamo. Current odds are 5/2 as they’re loading, and I’m thrilled to be getting that. I really think he’s an even money horse in this spot.

OK, back to 2/1, what can I do?

Got out good, and I forgot he’s a grey! That’s pretty cool. He’s up between horses in second on the first turn, and I’m liking this. Brian’s Echo is there, and a longshot up front too. Andiamo is in a great spot one off the rail in second by a half on the backstretch. He’ll have plenty left for the stretch.

Into the final turn, still second, now first. A couple are challenging, but Andiamo is looking solid. He comes out with run, and has another gear. He’s lengthening out and won’t be beat here. Wins by nine. Fucking hell yeah, and I did get my 5/2 after all. $20 on the win bet, that’s a $70 payout, if I’m doing my math right… Great race for Castillo, kept him right off the pace and was so much the better of these guys. Awesome.

2:44PM: $7.20 on the $2 win bet for Andiamo, and that was a gift. I’m 2-2 with my $20 win bets today, and in each case the horse was claimed for $25K. Eerie. I’m up $70 currently.

22 minutes to race six.

2:50PM: Race 6 coming up, and you know how I feel about Blades Hill (#1). Here’s a longshot to look at: #2 Dangerous Guy. Love the trainer/jockey connection, and the trainer puts the horse in a position to succeed. Gotta like that. He also works out like a champ. If you can get him at 10/1, which I bet you can, play him. Otherwise, I like #4 and #7 to be running up (with a few others) on the lead, and for one of those two to hit the board. I’m willing to blow off #8 because he’s getting an inferior rider to Lezcano (although Castillo did just ride Andiamo to victory…) this time, and I’m willing to play #3 if I’m getting 6/1 or better. Doubt I will though…

13 minutes to post.

2:55PM: Forgot to mention that CompuTrak likes the 6, 7 and 9 all at 5/1 as the co-favorites. In case you want to believe a piece of software over me…

3:04PM: Three minutes to post, and I’m getting agreeable prices on a few horses I like here. I’m going to take $3 win bets on #2 Dangerous Guy (7/1), #4 Davids Expectation (6/1), and #7 Sopa (6/1). I’ve also got the three boxed in a $1 exacta ($6).

3:07PM: Remember what I said about staying ahead on the program? Ugh. I’ve done a piss poor job on the sixth at Gulfstream (the first on the stakes program), and have seven more races coming after that at the two Sunshine Millions tracks.

And my Tampa feed has just cut out with one minute… okay, whew.

Anyway, my picks are going to be coming fast and furious on the stakes card, and I fully expect to get my ass handed to me. But for now? They’re loading up for the sixth at Tampa…

I want to see all three of my horses battling up front, and I want to see it over :22 and 4 on the first split… that’ll give one a chance to win for sure.

And they’re off… good start, the favorite jumped out, and there’s the four. The seven didn’t get a good start, neither did the deuce. I’m liking the four right now, the deuce ain’t got nothing right now. Final turn, and the four is there still. Liking him at 5/1, he needs to pass the favorite here. Kaufy Machine, the favorite is pulling away… got nothing. The favorite by two, and Castillo hits a winner. Minus $15 on that race.

3:14PM: (Gulfstream) I can get behind #7 Mister Fotis at 5/1 in the Padua Sprint. That’s well within my range. I think #6 Bordonaro is going to be tough to beat, but in stakes class I have a hard time swallowing 8/5 if the horse isn’t just head and shoulders better. I’ve also got a weird feeling about #8 Tacirring. I’m putting $2WP on the guy, just a flukey feeling…

3:17PM: Two minutes to post at Gulfstream, and I’ve got $2 WP on Tacirring #8, and $2 to win on #7 Mister Fotis. Not a confident couple of bets, but I’m not going to get cute when I don’t have good info By the way, watch how overbet the Jerry Bailey horses are going to be today. He’s a great jockey, he’s retiring, but his 10/1 morning line shot shouldn’t possibly be 5/1.

3:19PM: I’m in full-fledged panic mode now… I’ve only got the 20 minutes in between races to look at each upcoming race, so look for the bet sizes to be a wee bit smaller than my more confident Tampa plays.

They’re loading up for the six furlong sprint, $300K down at Gulfstream. #7 and #8 are my two, with #8 a severe longshot.

And they’re off… Hard to tell where my horses are, but I’m not in the front right now. Neither is the favorite. Go figure, Jerry Bailey gets up front, and here comes Ticirring. Liking my 8, he’s in a good spot. Place for me baby. There goes the favorite, he’s kicking ass. I’ve got a chance at the place. Maybe the win! come on! Got the place though, should make my money back plus some. Rock on.

3:25PM: $12.60 on the place for Tacirring. I just kept looking at that horses PPs and thinking he had an outside shot to hit, and I can’t even explain why. That’s a net +$6.60 on the race for me.

Tampa’s seventh coming up, I have mixed feelings about #2 Pattiano. He gets Houghton and comes out of a GIII two back, but I hate the new trainer angle here, despite the trainer’s success in allowance races. I like #3 British Event. He won last and the trainer gets one in four back to the winner’s circle next time out. A repeat performance on the speed figure will be enough. I also like #7 Ayla Bella, who ran second to #3 last out. She’ll push for the pace with #3 all the way around. Because of that, I’ve got a dark horse to watch. #8 Phone the Diva is 6/1 on the morning line, but should like the extra distance here and I think could be a factor.

3:34PM: Tough race to call here at Tampa for the seventh. I don’t like 7/2 on Phone the Diva (#8), but I’m digging 5/1 and 8/1 respectively on #3 British Event and #7 Ayla Bella. I’m boxing those two with #5 Omeya (8/5 on the board, can’t ignore completely). I’ll take a win bet on #3 as well.

Two minutes to post.

3:37PM: Okay, I snuck a win bet out on #7 Ayla Bella too. 7/1 is hard to pass up. $3 each to win on 3 and 7, and a 3/5/7 box for this 1 and 1/16th on Turf. $75K Optional Claimer, so it’ll be a good race.

Looking at the Santa Anita third, “The Dash,” it’s #1 Da Stoops and #6 Plagiarist all the way. #1 is steadily improving, he’s a workout warrior and has Baffert/Espinoza connections. Good stuff. #6 Plagiarist threw a huge number in his one and only maiden race, and showed a ton of early speed. The trainer has been targeting his stamina with workouts, which I respect a ton.

They’re loading up at Tampa… and they’re off…

#7 got out good, and so did #3. Liking that. 7 is out real well by 2.5 lengths, but it’s a long race. #3 is in a good spot. #5 is in back, but closers do well on turf. 7 and 3 in the lead running comfortably on the backstretch. 5 isn’t challenging yet, but just made his move… he’s coming up on the outside fast before the final turn, and is coming up on the outside. still 3/7… still 7/3… still 7/3… still 7 and now 5… hit the win, hit the exacta. Win bet at 8/1 for $3, which will pay $27 and change. The exacta should pay $29. Not bad! Great race for Umana on Ayla Bella, totally controlled the pace all the way around. Much respect for that ride.

$29 on the win, $29 on the exacta. Good stuff.

Five minutes to post at Santa Anita…

3:51PM: Fucking Internet. I got the $10 on Da Stoops (#1), but the system hung up on me. I’m getting choppy ass video, but can hear the announcer. Must get my bets in earlier.

And they’re off… Should be fast, and 1 got out there real sharp. He’s not up there immediately, but unwound easily. He’s killing Plagiarist right now, and is putting distance between 2nd place #2. He’s up six, Plagiarist is way back. Thank you Internet traffic! Da Stoops is KILLING them all. He’s clear by five, now eight. Da Stoops by ten or more. Total romp, Plagiarist didn’t even catch fourth. Had ten to win, should pay $23.

3:57PM: I lost a post in there, the one where I was saying I was going to bet $10 to win on Da Stoops, $5 to win on Plagiarist, but the system hung up on me due to Internet traffic. I got the $10 down though, paid $23 flat.

Good day today so far.

I’m going to let Laoch from my comments below give you a pick:

I am taking a stab on # 7 Peach Flambe at Gulfstram in race 7 – MOves to the Hennig barn after an expensive private pruchase. Impressive workout tab – tracked 21.2 44.3 fractions at Calder last time out. very tough race though.

I’m not even looking at this one. I’ve got five minutes to post and haven’t cracked the program at all. Moving on to the fourth at Santa Anita instead. However, I’ll play $2 to win on Peach Flambe (4/1 on the board, 12/1 on the morning line – no value there?), and will put $5 to win on #6 Bettarun Fast just for Patrick Valenzuela.

4:02PM: Two minutes to Gulfstream’s seventh, but seven minutes to the last Tampa race on my list, the eighth. I’m going to avoid #1 Pinpoint, who’s going to be overbet on an overinflated reputation and Jeremy Rose/Nick Zito connections. I like #2 Disbelief at a fair (5/1?) price, ran a bullet on 1/6 and this is his second at the track after being shipped in. He ran a solid race last out, like him to improve. #3 Bernie Blue keeps this horse in spots to contend, so I can’t rule him out. The Pelican last out was a reach, but if he finds last fall’s dirt form (not a reach), it’d be plenty. I’m also taking a personal flier on #9 Light Brigade for the Michigan Houghton/Bennett connections. Don’t waste your dough…

4:06PM: Gulfstream’s seventh… and they’re off…

Peach Flambe (7) got out there fast, and 6 is out there well too. And my video is choppy as fuck and I can’t see a damn thing. Where’s my six? Where’s my seven? No effing idea. Peach Flambe is going to the lead, and loses to Joint Effort… Wish I saw what happened there.

Oh well, on to Tampa’s eighth. I’m playing $5 win bets on 2/3/9. This fucking laptop, I swear to god… Who wants to buy me a computer while I’m in the hospital?

4:11PM: The eighth race at Tampa is named for the birthday of Chet VanWorp. Happy birthday Chet!

I fully anticipate losing $15 on this race, but stranger things have happened. I’m getting 5/1 on Bernie Blue and 14/1 on Disbelief (#3 and #2). Oh, and 56/1 on Lite Brigade (#9).

And they’re off… Nine got out real clean, liking that. Bernie Blue is there, but Disbelief sucks balls. 9 is out there in front, three is close. Liking this so far. Come on nine. Pay me big damn dollars. Big damn dollars. It ain’t happening, don’t mean I can’t root. He’s at the lead at the top of the stretch. Lite Brigade is there. HE’S PULLLNG AWAY! – No! No! No! Fucking hell. That was so very very close. He had the lead to the last six strides, I swear to god, then got passed THREE TIMES. I missed $5 on 50/1 by nearly nothing.

*4:24PM Update: Stupid-ass technical difficulties have forced me to abandon my Quixotic quest to run all eight races at Tampa and all eight for the Sunshine Millions. That was fun, and I’ll do it again someday, but I need to reboot and not stress the shit out of my system anymore today…

Thanks for hanging out and reading today guys, was fun until I couldn’t watch the races smoothly anymore…

Point By MotherEffing Point

Hi there, good morning. Just some stuff:

· Fuck this Oprah anger charade shit. A guy wrote a book, you read the book and recommended it as worth reading. Then you find out it’s all made up… like most books are. So fucking what. You’ve got enough of a cache of integrity built up that you can let this Hunter-Thompson-meets-Walter-Mitty motherfucker roll off your back without pretending his book loses worth because it’s fake. Let. It. Go.

· Ed Brayton over at “Dispatches from the Culture Wars” wrote yesterday about an arrest attempt of a bookie which resulted in a fatal accident. I agree with the assertion that “vice” laws, which largely prevent us from “doing harm” to ourselves (and only ourselves, in many cases) shouldn’t be in place. If I want to gamble my money away, it’s my money and I’m only hurting myself. But Ed and Brian at The-Ds both wonder why the arrest had to be made by a SWAT team with weapons drawn. After all, the newspaper article said he didn’t exhibit violent tendencies and nowhere in the article did it say he was a bookie.

Of course, if a newspaper reporter was shot by his wife at point-blank range, he’d still write the article saying “the alleged shooter has been identified as…” My point is that I want to believe that (despite the tactics that border on entrapment) the vice squad is doing their job and understanding the circumstances and people they are both targeting and arresting. For example, if a vice squad officer hears of a guy who likes to throw his money around and likes to bet a couple grand a weekend “between friends” on football, I’d like to think they’re not going to engage in a five-month sting operation to set the guy up for arrest. On the other hand, if they hear of a bookie that’s taking big action every weekend, that’s different. The article mentions the sting resulted in $28K in booked action with the victim over a long period. I’d like to think they had evidence to lead them to believe this guy was booking that and a lot more. And I’d like to think that the reason they’d bust a guy like this would be to shake him down for his connections up the organized crime ladder.

I realize nothing regarding OC or other evidence of his booking bets besides the sting was mentioned in the article, but if I’m making too big a leap in my assumptions here, tell me below.

Anyway, I believe that if the cops did their job, then this guy was a bookie. Shouldn’t be illegal, but is. I also believe that they wouldn’t waste their time chasing a bookie who only took a few bucks here and there “between friends.” I believe this guy was probably not “small change.” Assuming he is a bookie, and assuming he’s not small change, there’s a significant possibility he’s somehow connected to organized crime in the area. He might just be paying “tribute” for the right to operate his business, or he might be bankrolled by someone with deeper pockets (which makes sense, considering the six-figure/week action the article mentions as the “norm” the vice squad tracks).

So, the cops are planning to arrest a guy who handles a lot of cash and is has a better chance of being connected to organized crime than you (everyone but Pauly is who I mean) or I do. Even if you don’t want to jump to the OC conclusion, doesn’t the fact that he handles a lot of cash mean that he’s exponentially more likely to carry a gun than you or I (but not Scott)?

Here’s the nightmare scenario… Cops decide to arrest him, send two unarmed officers to his place of employment (he was an optometrist) with the assumption that he’ll go peacefully. However, he’s got two pockets full of cocaine and knows that when fingerprinted, they’ll match an unsolved murder from two years prior. He unexpectedly pulls a gun and makes like the Sundance Kid.

That nightmare scenario is why you approach this guy with guns drawn. The rest of the story from there is tragic and inexcusable, but I can’t say I see the police actions up to the point of the accident as either surprising or illogical.

· When Wil did his bullet-pointed rambling the other day, his were a lot shorter than mine.

· My oven inexplicably won’t heat up anymore. The element must have gone bad. Thank god I finally broke down and bought a microwave. The burners and light inside the oven seem to work, so I know it’s not a blown fuse. Maybe the landlord will finally equip my apartment with an appliance that didn’t arrive in town with the original settlers of the area. I’m pretty sure the oven was originally purchased for 43 beaver pelts and a few strings of beads.

· Got my 1099 from Gawker yesterday. Made out to “Anthony Olivera.” They can’t even get the pseudonym right.

· Here’s a math problem for you, in pictorial form.

$8 from Productdose.com. Plus S&H.

-or-

$.42 from your local supermarket. And you can cook and eat the other half for lunch.

· I’m currently enjoying the ever living shit out of the $50NL 6-max tables on the best poker site online. I’ve been targeting tables where I can sit down as the big stack, and it’s been a good strategy so far. Made $100 over about 300-350 hands for a BB/100 win rate of something like a million. I busted three short-to-mid stacks last night, the most satisfying of which was taking AKo to the cleaners with 23s. I flopped a spade flush, he turned two pair, and I got all his dough when that red four hit the river. While my win rate is improving, and I feel like I’m playing good poker, my icon changed in PokerTracker to the Triangle-Exclamation-Point from the Money Bag. Might have a little something to do with last night’s 40% VPIP.

· Highly Recommended: The Band: The Last Waltz CD Box Set

· I have a torchiere lamp in my living room with touch activation and a three-way bulb. My dog has figured out how to work the lamp, and he knows that when he “accidentally” turns it off, he needs to turn it back on and to the right setting. I should turn this into a stupid dog trick.

· I’m fairly sure this woman a cube or two away just absolutely loathes me. This isn’t necessarily surprising, as I’m really quite loud on the telephone and have a bad habit of speaking up and offering answers to questions that aren’t being asked of me. Then again, she spends a decent bit of time every week having very personal phone conversations at her desk (easily overheard without trying to listen), and I could probably return just a little bit of disdain in that regard, were I not such a tame little cubicle monkey on most days.

· I’m wondering if the hospital will let me pay all this horse shit off in a leisurely fashion. Like over three years. I’d much rather have a savings account.

· I think I need an external hard drive or a new laptop. Is it easy to dump your whole iTunes collection to an external? And you can tell iTunes to go look for the music over there, right? Maybe I’ll just buy a new laptop. I kinda want an Apple this time, but I’ll probably just suck it up and go PC again.

· I’m not sure if this would be a good idea to mix into my (non-existent) fitness routine. Instead of pretending to shovel or churn butter with a sweater-wrapped sledgehammer to burn calories, why don’t I just pretend to hump the arm of the couch? Sex burns calories, right? I’m sure I could wear down that fabric just enough to ease the friction after awhile too. Then again when you buy chennile furniture, it’s like humping a terry-cloth bathrobe fresh out of the dryer.

· I mean, I imagine it’d be like humping a terry-cloth bathrobe. Sheesh.

· I got the following email this morning, titled “A Question about Lord Geznikor:”

Hey man, I am not much of a poker player, but I know Dan from other online interests. I was wondering if you or any of your mates had any knowledge of his whereabouts. I havent heard from the guy in 6 months which is very unusual….

Okay Dylan, here’s your APB… Anyone have any info?

· Just got off the phone with a friend of mine who is doing an installation of theatre-quality spotlights and such at a 6,000 seat sanctuary in a new Mega-Lo-Mass chapel nearby. He mentioned he’s putting in more lighting in that joint than in the three local theatres in our neighborhoods combined. He adds, “And what does it say about the message when you’re trying to turn it into a Pink Floyd show?”

· Stupidest surgically-related moment of panic so far: Last night as I was trying to get to sleep, I freaked out for a millisecond over the possibility that I would have a bad dream while under anesthesia. As if they aren’t going to pump me full of enough shit to keep me still even if I’m imagining running through a warehouse being chased by a guy with twin glocks and a clown nose.

I’m so effing stupid sometimes, I swear to god…